Forensic Analysis · Refining & Downstream · as of Nov 9, 2026
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)
A forensic read on Exxon Mobil Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
B · Sound & dependable
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
5.8
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
11.0%
ROE
-5.0%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Exxon Mobil Corp earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 5.8, placing it in the Safe zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
8.2%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 8.2% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 13.4%. After-tax operating profit was $38.0B in FY2023 and $30.2B in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +30% across FY2023–FY2025, from $283.5B to $368.6B, while the return fell 5.2 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 13.4% the older base was already earning.
+3.1%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Basic share count changed +6% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+3.1%/yr). The count is growing — 4,052.0M shares in FY2023, 4,305.0M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~3.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~6%.
159% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $37.5B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 159% of free cash flow, but 72% of operating cash flow. Returns run ahead of free cash flow because the business is also funding heavy growth capex (usually debt-financed); the payout itself is covered by operating cash — sustainable as long as that spending is genuine expansion, not upkeep.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$332.24B
Revenue Growth YoY-5.0%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-1.8%
Net Margin8.7%
Free Cash Flow$23.61B
Return on Equity11.0%
Debt / Equity0.16x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Exxon Mobil Corp's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?