Forensic Analysis · Electric Utilities · as of Nov 8, 2026

Vistra Corp. (VST)

A forensic read on Vistra Corp. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

B · Sound & dependable

Forensic grade

Clean

Earnings quality

Forensic signals

17.7%

ROE

3.0%

Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Vistra Corp. earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.

What the filings flag

5.4%

FY2025

Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is 5.4% in the latest fiscal year, against 10.1% in FY2023, having run between 5.4% and 13.8% across FY2023–FY2025 with no direction held. After-tax operating profit was $2.0B in FY2023 and $1.6B in FY2025, with operating income at 18.0% of revenue in FY2023, 23.7% in FY2024 and 10.7% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +50% across FY2023–FY2025, from $19.7B to $29.5B, while the return fell 4.7 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 10.1% the older base was already earning.

101% of FCF

FY2025

Shareholder returns. Returned $1.3B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 101% of free cash flow. That is $16M (1.2%) more than free cash flow covered. The balance sheet covered it: cash fell $403M and total debt rose $745M over FY2025. That ratio has been CLIMBING past free cash flow — 41% of free cash flow two years back — not just sitting there. Counting the $113M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 110%.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$17.74B

Revenue Growth YoY+3.0%

Revenue CAGR (2yr)+9.6%

Net Margin5.3%

Free Cash Flow$1.32B

Return on Equity17.7%

Debt / Equity3.34x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Nov 8, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.

See a wrong number? Report an error with the filing it should match.