Forensic Analysis · Utilities · as of Aug 11, 2026
Vistra Corp. (VST)
A forensic read on Vistra Corp. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.3
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
21.6
P / E (ttm)
18.5%
ROE
$48.4B
Market cap
0.62%
Dividend yield
3.0%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Vistra Corp. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.3, placing it in the Grey zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).
What the filings flag
+10.3%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +10.3% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by receivables up +17% against revenue +3% and PP&E up +9% against revenue +3%. The cash-flow cross-check is more mixed: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 15% of net operating assets, diverging from the balance-sheet accrual read.
5.2%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 5.2% in the latest fiscal year and rising from -4% — around its ~6% cost of capital, so growth is roughly value-neutral.
101% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $1.3B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 101% of free cash flow. Right at the limit of what free cash flow covers — little room before it's funded by debt or the balance sheet. That ratio has been CLIMBING toward the limit — 13% of free cash flow a few years back — not just sitting there. Counting the $113M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 110%.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$17.74B
Revenue Growth YoY+3.0%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+8.9%
Net Margin5.3%
Free Cash Flow$1.32B
Return on Equity18.5%
Debt / Equity3.34x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Vistra Corp.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?