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Forensic Analysis · Railroads · as of Nov 9, 2026

Union Pacific Corp (UNP)

A forensic read on Union Pacific Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

A · High-quality, not compounding
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
4.5
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
2
Forensic signals
40.4%
ROE
1.1%
Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Union Pacific Corp earns an A (High-quality, not compounding) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 4.5, placing it in the Safe zone. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.

What the filings flag

12.3%
FY2025
Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is 12.3% in the latest fiscal year and steady across FY2023–FY2025, inside a 0.7-point range. After-tax operating profit was $7.0B in FY2023 and $7.7B in FY2025, with operating income at 37.7% of revenue in FY2023, 40.1% in FY2024 and 40.2% in FY2025. The capital base behind it went from $61.0B in FY2023 to $62.4B in FY2025 (+2%), while the revenue it carried went from $24.1B to $24.5B.
108% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns. Returned $5.9B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 108% of free cash flow. That is $416M (8%) more than free cash flow covered. New debt covered part of it: total debt rose $622M over FY2025, while cash rose $250M — $372M of the $416M. The FY2025 cash-flow statement filed $2.0B of debt issued; $51M from shares issued; net cash used in investing activities of $3.8B; net cash used in financing activities of $5.3B. That ratio has been CLIMBING past free cash flow — 81% of free cash flow two years back — not just sitting there. Counting the $142M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 110%.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$24.51B
Revenue Growth YoY+1.1%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+0.8%
Net Margin29.1%
Free Cash Flow$5.50B
Return on Equity40.4%
Debt / Equity1.72x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Nov 9, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.

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