Forensic Analysis · Transportation / Logistics · as of Nov 9, 2026

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc (SPCE)

A forensic read on Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

F · Poor — capital at risk

Forensic grade

Distress

Financial health

-11.7

Distress distance

Forensic signals

-93.6%

ROE

-78.1%

Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc earns an F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads -11.7, placing it in the Distress zone. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by share-count dilution.

What the filings flag

+74.3%/yr

FY2023–FY2025

Share-count dilution. Diluted share count changed +204% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+74.3%/yr). The count is growing — 16.9M shares in FY2023, 51.2M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~74.3% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~67%.

1211% of rev

FY2025

Stock-based comp load. Stock-based compensation ran 1211% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.36 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 74.3% a year across FY2023–FY2025 and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$1.5M

Revenue Growth YoY-78.1%

Revenue CAGR (2yr)-52.3%

Net Margin-18063.9%

Free Cash Flow-$438.2M

Return on Equity-93.6%

Debt / Equity1.18x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Nov 9, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.

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