Forensic Analysis · Aerospace & Defense · as of Nov 9, 2026
Redwire Corp (RDW)
A forensic read on Redwire Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
F · Poor — capital at risk
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.5
Distress distance
Watch
Earnings quality
6
Forensic signals
-52.0%
ROE
10.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Redwire Corp earns an F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.5, placing it in the Grey zone. 6 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by inventory days.
What the filings flag
33d
FY2024→FY2025
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 3 to 33 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +2394% vs +23% in cost of sales). Inventory is outrunning what's being sold — a flag for softening demand or obsolescence risk ahead.
-27.6%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -27.6% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from -9.4%. After-tax operating profit was ($12M) in FY2023 and ($181M) in FY2025, with operating income at -6.4% of revenue in FY2023, -13.9% in FY2024 and -68.5% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +404% across FY2023–FY2025, from $130M to $658M, while the return fell 18.2 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the -9.4% the older base was already earning. FY2025's operating profit carried a $35M asset write-down and a $21M goodwill write-off that alone took about 6.7 points off that year's return, so about 6.7 of the 18.2-point fall across FY2023–FY2025 is that charge landing in the latest year rather than the capital earning less. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.
+36.0%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +85% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+36.0%/yr). The count is growing — 64.7M shares in FY2023, 119.5M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~36.0% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~46%.
18% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 18% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.49 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 36.0% a year across FY2023–FY2025 and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
+18.1%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +18.1% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. Net operating assets also rose $982.0M through acquisitions (increase in goodwill and intangibles); that purchase is investing and is excluded from this ratio. The build is led by inventory up +2394% against +23% in cost of sales and PP&E up +176% against revenue +10%. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 8% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 18.1%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
41d DSO
FY2024→FY2025
Receivables vs revenue.Days sales outstanding moved from 26 to 41 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables +70% vs revenue +10%). Receivables are creeping up relative to sales. Across FY2023–FY2025 the day count ran 49 → 26 → 41 days, so the latest reading sits on top of a record that was flat or falling before it — one year's move, not a direction the business has been travelling in. Deferred revenue was roughly flat (-11%) over the same period, which doesn't corroborate a benign upfront-billing explanation for the receivables build. Both figures are measured on period-end balances rather than the beginning-plus-ending average, because averaging needs the balance a year before every reading — FY2024's opening balance is on file, but across the 3 fiscal years read here (FY2023–FY2025) the average yields only 2 day counts (1 step), too few to tell a climb from one year's move.DSO (days sales outstanding): the average days the company waits to collect cash after a sale.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$335.4M
Revenue Growth YoY+10.3%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+17.3%
Net Margin-67.6%
Free Cash Flow-$190.8M
Return on Equity-52.0%
Debt / Equity0.08x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Redwire Corp's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?