Forensic Analysis · Paper & Forest Products · as of Nov 9, 2026
Packaging Corp Of America (PKG)
A forensic read on Packaging Corp Of America built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
B · Sound & dependable
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
4.0
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
2
Forensic signals
17.2%
ROE
7.2%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Packaging Corp Of America earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 4.0, placing it in the Safe zone. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of NOA).
What the filings flag
+13.8%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +13.8% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. Net operating assets also rose $860.3M through acquisitions (increase in goodwill and intangibles); that purchase is investing and is excluded from this ratio. The build is led by PP&E up +23% against revenue +7% and inventory up +11% against +8% in cost of sales. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 11% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 13.8%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
10.2%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 10.2% in the latest fiscal year and steady across FY2023–FY2025, inside a 1.4-point range. After-tax operating profit was $811M in FY2023 and $834M in FY2025, with operating income at 13.8% of revenue in FY2023, 13.1% in FY2024 and 12.3% in FY2025. The capital base behind it cannot be compared across FY2023–FY2025: short-term debt is tagged in one of those two fiscal years and not the other, and an untagged line enters this calculation as zero, so any change in the base would be a change in what the filer tagged.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$8.99B
Revenue Growth YoY+7.2%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+7.3%
Net Margin8.6%
Free Cash Flow$728.6M
Return on Equity17.2%
Debt / Equity0.86x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Packaging Corp Of America's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?