Forensic Analysis · Materials / Mining & Chemicals · as of Aug 11, 2026

Packaging Corp Of America (PKG)

A forensic read on Packaging Corp Of America built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

C · Mixed — selective

Forensic grade

Safe

Financial health

7.1

Distress distance

Clean

Earnings quality

Forensic signals

32.7

P / E (ttm)

16.8%

ROE

$22.6B

Market cap

2.37%

Dividend yield

7.2%

Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Packaging Corp Of America earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 7.1, placing it in the Safe zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).

What the filings flag

+25.9%

FY2024→FY2025

Accruals ratio (% of NOA). Net operating assets grew +25.9% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The build is led by PP&E up +23% against revenue +7% and inventory up +11% against +8% in cost of sales. The cash-flow cross-check is more mixed: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 11% of net operating assets, diverging from the balance-sheet accrual read.

9.1%

FY2025

Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is 9.1% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from 16% — around its ~8% cost of capital, so growth is roughly value-neutral.

$55M

FY2020–FY2020

Goodwill impairments. Took $55M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2020 ($55M)) — about 12% of net income over the span. Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$8.99B

Revenue Growth YoY+7.2%

Revenue CAGR (3yr)+2.0%

Net Margin8.6%

Free Cash Flow$728.6M

Return on Equity16.8%

Debt / Equity0.86x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.