Forensic Analysis · General / Diversified · as of Jun 28, 2026
OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC (OSG)
A forensic read on OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
-28.4%
ROE
$300M
Market cap
OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by receivables vs revenue.
What the filings flag
126d DSOReceivables vs revenue. Days sales outstanding moved from 86 to 126 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables +56% vs revenue +7%). Receivables are outrunning sales — a flag for aggressive revenue recognition or slipping collections.
-10%Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is -10% and slipping from -1% — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+1.1%/yrShare-count dilution. Diluted share count changed +3% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+1.1%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~1.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~3%.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-103.1%
Debt / Equity0.16x
Latest Revenue$251.2M
Return on Equity-36.2%
Revenue Growth YoY+6.5%
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🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown
🔒Peer comparison + filing-change monitoring & alerts
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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Jun 28, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.