Forensic Analysis · Upstream Exploration & Production · as of Nov 9, 2026
Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NOG)
A forensic read on Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
B · Sound & dependable
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.3
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
1.7%
ROE
11.2%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.3, placing it in the Grey zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
3.2%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 3.2% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 24.7%. After-tax operating profit was $1.0B in FY2023 and $160M in FY2025, with operating income at 51.8% of revenue in FY2023, 37.6% in FY2024 and 9.9% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +21% across FY2023–FY2025, from $4.1B to $5.0B, while the return fell 21.5 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 24.7% the older base was already earning.
+3.9%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +8% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+3.9%/yr). The count is growing — 92.1M shares in FY2023, 99.3M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~3.9% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~7%.
0.6% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.6% of revenue and 1% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.15 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 3.9% a year across FY2023–FY2025, and the rate is falling. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$2.48B
Revenue Growth YoY+11.2%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+6.9%
Net Margin1.6%
Free Cash Flow$1.50B
Return on Equity1.7%
Debt / Equity1.13x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Northern Oil & Gas, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?