Forensic Analysis · Energy / Oil & Gas · as of Aug 11, 2026

Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NOG)

A forensic read on Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

D · Weak — demands caution

Forensic grade

Grey Zone

Financial health

1.4

Distress distance

Clean

Earnings quality

Forensic signals

-4.2

P / E (ttm)

1.8%

ROE

$2.4B

Market cap

8.88%

Dividend yield

11.2%

Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.4, placing it in the Grey zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.

What the filings flag

3.3%

FY2025

Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is 3.3% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from 30% — well below its ~8% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.

+4.6%/yr

FY2022–FY2025

Share-count dilution. Diluted share count changed +15% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+4.6%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~4.6% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~13%.

0.6% of rev

FY2025

Stock-based comp load. Stock-based compensation ran 0.6% of revenue and 1% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.15 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count, and there it has run at about 4.8% a year and is falling.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$2.48B

Revenue Growth YoY+11.2%

Revenue CAGR (3yr)+16.4%

Net Margin1.6%

Free Cash Flow$1.50B

Return on Equity1.8%

Debt / Equity1.13x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.