Forensic Analysis · Professional & Commercial Services · as of Sep 25, 2026
National Cinemedia, Inc. (NCMI)
A forensic read on National Cinemedia, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
5.6
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
6
Forensic signals
-43.4
P / E (ttm)
-2.8%
ROE
$355M
Market cap
2.98%
Dividend yield
1.0%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
National Cinemedia, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 5.6, placing it in the Safe zone. 6 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by cash conversion.
What the filings flag
0.09×
FY2023–FY2025
Cash conversion.Over FY2023–FY2025, cumulative operating cash flow was 0.09× cumulative net income. Reported profit is not turning into cash. The shortfall is profit tied up in working capital rather than collected — the accrual and receivables lines below show where.
-2.8%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -2.8% in the latest fiscal year and rising across FY2023–FY2025 from -5.2%. After-tax operating profit was ($25M) in FY2023 and ($11M) in FY2025, with operating income at -16.5% of revenue in FY2023, -8.1% in FY2024 and -5.7% in FY2025. The capital base behind it cannot be compared across FY2023–FY2025: short-term debt is tagged in one of those two fiscal years and not the other, and an untagged line enters this calculation as zero, so any change in the base would be a change in what the filer tagged.
1193% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $33M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 1193% of free cash flow. That is $31M (1093%) more than free cash flow covered, and more than operating cash flow as well. The balance sheet covered it: cash fell $40M and total debt rose $2M over FY2025. A payout past free cash flow draws the balance sheet down in every year it continues, which isn't sustainable indefinitely. Counting the $9M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 1525%.
145d DSO
FY2024→FY2025
Receivables vs revenue.Days sales outstanding moved from 129 to 145 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables +13% vs revenue +1%). Receivables are creeping up relative to sales. Only 9¢ of operating cash arrived for every dollar of profit reported over FY2023–FY2025 ($62.0M against $672.3M), and the receivables balance is one of the places the rest is sitting. Across FY2023–FY2025 the day count ran 213 → 129 → 145 days, so the latest reading sits on top of a record that was flat or falling before it — one year's move, not a direction the business has been travelling in. Deferred revenue was roughly flat (-54%) over the same period, which doesn't corroborate a benign upfront-billing explanation for the receivables build. Both figures are measured on period-end balances rather than the beginning-plus-ending average, because averaging needs the balance a year before every reading — FY2024's opening balance is on file, but across the 3 fiscal years read here (FY2023–FY2025) the average yields only 2 day counts (1 step), too few to tell a climb from one year's move.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$243.2M
Revenue Growth YoY+1.0%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+21.2%
Net Margin-4.4%
Free Cash Flow$2.8M
Return on Equity-2.8%
Debt / Equity0.03x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from National Cinemedia, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Sep 25, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
n/m (stock split)
FY2023–FY2025
Share count (stock split).Diluted share count changed +94% over the last 2 years to FY2025, but that includes a large one-time change around FY2024 consistent with a stock split or reverse split, not gradual buybacks or issuance — a split changes the count with NO effect on any holder's proportional ownership, so the raw +39.2%/yr figure isn't a real buyback/dilution read here.
-40%
FY2023→FY2024
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~40% in FY2024 (from FY2023). It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies. Measured on total dividend dollars rather than per share: the reported share count steps sharply around FY2024, a stock-split seam between filing vintages rather than a change in the payout, and a split leaves the dollars paid untouched.
National Cinemedia, Inc. (NCMI) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy