Forensic Analysis · General / Diversified · as of Jun 28, 2026
National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI)
A forensic read on National CineMedia, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
5.8
Altman Z-score
Clean
Earnings quality
6
Forensic signals
-2.4%
ROE
$352M
Market cap
3.38%
Dividend yield
National CineMedia, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is 5.8, placing it in the Safe zone. 6 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by cash conversion.
What the filings flag
0.09×Cash conversion.Over FY2023–FY2026, operating cash flow was 0.09× cumulative net income. Reported profit is not turning into cash — a classic earnings-quality warning.
-3%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -3% and slipping from 1% — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+262.3%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +1049% over the last 4 years to FY2026 (+262.3%/yr). A reversal: the count shrank earlier (net -5.0%/yr since FY2018) but the company has SWUNG to issuing stock — recent holders are now being diluted, not rewarded. That's ~262.3% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~1049%.
4% of revStock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 4% of revenue and 332% of free cash flow in FY2026 — about $0.10 per diluted share. Heavy — a large slice of 'free cash flow' is really being paid out in stock, so the true owner cash per share is well below the headline.
1193% of FCFShareholder returns.Returned $33M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2026 — 1193% of free cash flow. More than free cash flow generated — and beyond operating cash too, so the extra is coming from debt or cash reserves, which isn't sustainable indefinitely.
145d DSOReceivables vs revenue.Days sales outstanding moved from 129 to 145 days FY2024→FY2026 (receivables +13% vs revenue +1%). Receivables are creeping up relative to sales — watch the trend.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-4.4%
Debt / Equity0.03x
Free Cash Flow$2.8M
Latest Revenue$243.2M
Return on Equity-2.8%
Revenue Growth YoY+1.0%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on National CineMedia, Inc.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about NCMI's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown