National Cinemedia, Inc. (NCMI) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · Professional & Commercial Services · as of Aug 12, 2026
National Cinemedia, Inc. (NCMI)
A forensic read on National Cinemedia, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
5.6
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
6
Forensic signals
-43.4
P / E (ttm)
-2.8%
ROE
$355M
Market cap
2.98%
Dividend yield
1.0%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
National Cinemedia, Inc. earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 5.6, placing it in the Safe zone. 6 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by cash conversion.
What the filings flag
0.09×
FY2023, FY2024, and FY2026
Cash conversion.Over FY2023, FY2024, and FY2026, operating cash flow was 0.09× cumulative net income. Reported profit is not turning into cash. The shortfall is profit tied up in working capital rather than collected — the accrual and receivables lines below show where.
-2.8%
FY2026
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -2.8% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from 1% — well below its ~10% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
4% of rev
FY2026
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 4% of revenue and 332% of free cash flow in FY2026 — about $0.10 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count: holders gave up about 2.3% of the company a year, and that rate is not falling. That is the figure to weigh, not the share of free cash flow.
1193% of FCF
FY2026
Shareholder returns.Returned $33M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2026 — 1193% of free cash flow. More than free cash flow generated — and beyond operating cash too, so the extra is coming from debt or cash reserves, which isn't sustainable indefinitely. Counting the $9M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 1525%.
145d DSO
FY2024→FY2026
Receivables vs revenue.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$243.2M
Revenue Growth YoY+1.0%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+21.2%
Net Margin-4.4%
Free Cash Flow$2.8M
Return on Equity-2.8%
Debt / Equity0.03x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from National Cinemedia, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 12, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
Days sales outstanding moved from 129 to 145 days FY2024→FY2026 (receivables +13% vs revenue +1%). Receivables are creeping up relative to sales. Only 9¢ of operating cash arrived for every dollar of profit reported over FY2023, FY2024, and FY2026 ($62.0M against $672.3M), and the receivables balance is one of the places the rest is sitting. Deferred revenue was roughly flat (-54%) over the same period, which doesn't corroborate a benign upfront-billing explanation for the receivables build. FY2024 and FY2026 aren't consecutive filed years here, so FY2026's opening balance can't be taken from FY2024 — both figures are measured on period-end balances rather than the beginning-plus-ending average, which keeps the two endpoints comparable to each other.
n/m (stock split)
FY2022–FY2026
Share count (stock split).Diluted share count changed +1049% over the last 4 years to FY2026, but that includes a large one-time change around FY2023 consistent with a stock split or reverse split, not gradual buybacks or issuance — a split changes the count with NO effect on any holder's proportional ownership, so the raw +84.1%/yr figure isn't a real buyback/dilution read here.