Forensic Analysis · Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology · as of Nov 9, 2026
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)
A forensic read on Moderna, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
5.1
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
-28.9%
ROE
-39.9%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Moderna, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 5.1, placing it in the Safe zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by inventory days.
What the filings flag
57d
FY2024→FY2025
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 40 to 57 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +31% vs -41% in cost of sales). Inventory is outrunning what's being sold — a flag for softening demand or obsolescence risk ahead.
-27.3%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -27.3% in the latest fiscal year and steady across FY2023–FY2025, inside a 0.9-point range. After-tax operating profit was ($3.3B) in FY2023 and ($2.4B) in FY2025, with operating income at -61.9% of revenue in FY2023, -121.9% in FY2024 and -158.1% in FY2025. The capital base behind it cannot be compared across FY2023–FY2025: long-term debt is tagged in one of those two fiscal years and not the other, and an untagged line enters this calculation as zero, so any change in the base would be a change in what the filer tagged. $6.6B of the $8.9B base at FY2025 is short-term investments and long-term marketable securities (73.9%) — securities held beside cash, which the base keeps because only cash is subtracted from it; they earn the balance sheet's yield, which is not in the operating profit above, so the loss on the operating capital is larger than this rate shows.
FCF ($2.1B)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $2M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($2.1B) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, and operating cash flow itself was negative or zero that year too. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$1.94B
Revenue Growth YoY-39.9%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-46.7%
Net Margin-145.2%
Free Cash Flow-$2.06B
Return on Equity-28.9%
Debt / Equity0.07x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Moderna, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?