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Forensic Analysis · Refining & Downstream · as of Nov 9, 2026

Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)

A forensic read on Marathon Petroleum Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

B · Sound & dependable
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
2.9
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
2
Forensic signals
23.1%
ROE
-4.4%
Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Marathon Petroleum Corp earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 2.9, placing it in the Safe zone. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.

What the filings flag

11.5%
FY2025
Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is 11.5% in the latest fiscal year, against 18.6% in FY2023, having run between 9.6% and 18.6% across FY2023–FY2025 with no direction held. After-tax operating profit was $11.6B in FY2023 and $6.9B in FY2025, with operating income at 9.8% of revenue in FY2023, 4.9% in FY2024 and 6.2% in FY2025. The capital base behind it went from $62.3B in FY2023 to $60.4B in FY2025 (-3%), while the revenue it carried went from $148.4B to $132.7B.
97% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns. Returned $4.6B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 97% of free cash flow. Right at the limit of what free cash flow covers — little room before it's funded by debt or the balance sheet. Counting the $160M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 100%.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$132.70B
Revenue Growth YoY-4.4%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-5.4%
Net Margin3.0%
Free Cash Flow$4.77B
Return on Equity23.1%
Debt / Equity1.90x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Nov 9, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.

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