Forensic Analysis · Gas Distribution Utility · as of Nov 8, 2026
MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU)
A forensic read on MDU Resources Group Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.2
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
7.0%
ROE
6.7%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
MDU Resources Group Inc earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.2, placing it in the Grey zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
3.9%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 3.9% in the latest fiscal year and steady across FY2023–FY2025, inside a 0.9-point range. After-tax operating profit was $202M in FY2023 and $261M in FY2025, with operating income at 12.5% of revenue in FY2023, 15.1% in FY2024 and 15.5% in FY2025. The capital base behind it went from $6.8B in FY2023 to $6.8B in FY2025 (0%), while the revenue it carried went from $1.8B to $1.9B. Across FY2024–FY2025, $1.3B went into capital expenditure against $407M of total depreciation and amortisation. The base is struck net of amortisation, write-downs and the current liabilities that fund it, so it moved by less than that spending net of the wear, and this row does not say which of those absorbed the difference.
FCF ($297M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $108M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($297M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $473M — 23% of that. Capex and the payout together ran $405M past operating cash flow — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of. The balance sheet covered it: cash fell $39M and total debt rose $384M over FY2025.
-36%
FY2023→FY2024
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~36% in FY2024 (from FY2023). It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$1.88B
Revenue Growth YoY+6.7%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+2.0%
Net Margin10.2%
Free Cash Flow-$297.0M
Return on Equity7.0%
Debt / Equity0.97x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from MDU Resources Group Inc's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?