Forensic Analysis · Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology · as of Nov 8, 2026
Mbx Biosciences, Inc. (MBX)
A forensic read on Mbx Biosciences, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
F · Poor — capital at risk
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
15.2
Distress distance
2
Forensic signals
-27.8%
ROE
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Mbx Biosciences, Inc. earns an F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 15.2, placing it in the Grey zone. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of NOA).
What the filings flag
+34.2%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +34.2% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash. An accrual is a claim that still has to be collected or written down, so the gap resolves in a later period whichever way it goes. The build is led by PP&E up +153% on the year and payables paid down 44% on the year. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran in line with operating cash by 3% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 34.2%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
+243.0%/yr
FY2024–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +243% over the last 1 year to FY2025 (+243.0%/yr). The count is growing — 10.6M shares in FY2024, 36.5M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~243.0% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2024 has been diluted ~71%.
Key fundamentals
Free Cash Flow-$81.9M
Return on Equity-27.8%
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Mbx Biosciences, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?