Forensic Analysis · General / Diversified · as of Jun 28, 2026
MBIA INC (MBI)
A forensic read on MBIA INC built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
F · Poor — capital at risk
Forensic grade
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-185.1%
ROE
$332M
Market cap
MBIA INC earns a F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by cash conversion.
What the filings flag
-0.45×Cash conversion. Over FY2023–FY2025, operating cash flow was -0.45× cumulative net income. Reported profit is not turning into cash — a classic earnings-quality warning.
-9%Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is -9% and slipping from -8% — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
suspendedDividend — suspended. The dividend has been SUSPENDED — $409M paid in FY2023, then $0 in FY2025. A suspension is a major signal the board is conserving cash; the prior payment history doesn't offset it.
-0.4%/yrShare-count dilution. Diluted share count changed -1% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (-0.4%/yr). Roughly flat — buybacks are about offsetting stock comp, not shrinking the count. Per-share value isn't being meaningfully helped or hurt by the count.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-221.2%
Free Cash Flow$38.0M
Latest Revenue$80.0M
Revenue Growth YoY+90.5%
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🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown
🔒Peer comparison + filing-change monitoring & alerts
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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Jun 28, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.