Forensic Analysis · General / Diversified · as of Aug 11, 2026

Mattel Inc /De/ (MAT)

A forensic read on Mattel Inc /De/ built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

D · Weak — demands caution

Forensic grade

Safe

Financial health

5.2

Distress distance

Clean

Earnings quality

Forensic signals

8.5

P / E (ttm)

17.8%

ROE

$4.2B

Market cap

-0.6%

Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Mattel Inc /De/ earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 5.2, placing it in the Safe zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by shareholder returns.

What the filings flag

124% of FCF

FY2025

Shareholder returns. Returned $600M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 124% of free cash flow. More than free cash flow generated — and beyond operating cash too, so the extra is coming from debt or cash reserves, which isn't sustainable indefinitely. Counting the $80M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 141%.

suspended

FY2017→FY2019

Dividend — suspended. The dividend has been SUSPENDED — $312M paid in FY2017, then $0 in FY2019. A suspension is a major signal the board is conserving cash; the prior payment history doesn't offset it.

11.2%

FY2025

Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is 11.2% in the latest fiscal year and steady — a modest positive spread over its ~9% cost of capital — growth adds value, though not dramatically.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$5.35B

Revenue Growth YoY-0.6%

Revenue CAGR (3yr)-0.5%

Net Margin7.4%

Free Cash Flow$482.6M

Return on Equity17.8%

Debt / Equity1.04x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.