Forensic Analysis · General / Diversified · as of Nov 9, 2026

Mattel Inc /De/ (MAT)

A forensic read on Mattel Inc /De/ built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

B · Sound & dependable

Forensic grade

Safe

Financial health

4.7

Distress distance

Clean

Earnings quality

Forensic signals

17.7%

ROE

-0.6%

Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Mattel Inc /De/ earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 4.7, placing it in the Safe zone. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by shareholder returns.

What the filings flag

124% of FCF

FY2025

Shareholder returns. Returned $600M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 124% of free cash flow. That is $117M (24%) more than free cash flow covered, and more than operating cash flow as well. It came out of the balance sheet's own liquid holdings, not new debt: cash fell $145M over FY2025, while total debt fell $3M. A payout past free cash flow draws the balance sheet down in every year it continues, which isn't sustainable indefinitely. Counting the $80M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 141%.

11.3%

FY2025

Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is 11.3% in the latest fiscal year, against 9.5% in FY2023, having run between 9.5% and 15.0% across FY2023–FY2025 with no direction held. After-tax operating profit was $365M in FY2023 and $440M in FY2025, with operating income at 10.3% of revenue in FY2023, 12.9% in FY2024 and 10.2% in FY2025. The capital base behind it went from $3.8B in FY2023 to $3.9B in FY2025 (+2%), while the revenue it carried went from $5.4B to $5.3B.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$5.35B

Revenue Growth YoY-0.6%

Revenue CAGR (2yr)-0.9%

Net Margin7.4%

Free Cash Flow$482.6M

Return on Equity17.7%

Debt / Equity1.04x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Nov 9, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.

See a wrong number? Report an error with the filing it should match.