Forensic Analysis · Lumber & Wood Products · as of Nov 9, 2026
Louisiana-Pacific Corp (LPX)
A forensic read on Louisiana-Pacific Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
B · Sound & dependable
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
5.9
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
2
Forensic signals
8.6%
ROE
-7.9%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Louisiana-Pacific Corp earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 5.9, placing it in the Safe zone. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
7.9%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 7.9% in the latest fiscal year, against 10.4% in FY2023, having run between 7.9% and 20.5% across FY2023–FY2025 with no direction held. After-tax operating profit was $203M in FY2023 and $156M in FY2025, with operating income at 11.1% of revenue in FY2023, 18.0% in FY2024 and 7.7% in FY2025. The capital base behind it went from $2.0B in FY2023 to $2.0B in FY2025 (+1%), while the revenue it carried went from $2.6B to $2.7B. Across FY2024–FY2025, $474M went into capital expenditure against $271M of total depreciation and amortisation. The base is struck net of amortisation, write-downs and the current liabilities that fund it, so it moved by less than that spending net of the wear, and this row does not say which of those absorbed the difference. $298M of the $2.0B base at FY2025 is construction in progress (15.0%) — paid for, not yet in service, and so in the denominator of this return while it cannot be in the profit above it. FY2025's operating profit carried a $44M asset write-down and a $6M restructuring charge that alone took about 1.9 points off that year's return, so about 1.9 of the 2.5-point fall across FY2023–FY2025 is that charge landing in the latest year rather than the capital earning less. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.
153% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $139M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 153% of free cash flow, but 36% of operating cash flow. Returns run ahead of free cash flow because the business is also funding heavy growth capex (usually debt-financed); the payout itself is covered by operating cash — sustainable as long as that spending is genuine expansion, not upkeep. Counting the $30M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 186%.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$2.71B
Revenue Growth YoY-7.9%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+2.4%
Net Margin5.4%
Free Cash Flow$91.0M
Return on Equity8.6%
Debt / Equity0.20x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Louisiana-Pacific Corp's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?