Forensic Analysis · General / Diversified · as of Jun 27, 2026
Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)
A forensic read on Lemonade, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
F · Poor — capital at risk
Forensic grade
Clean
Earnings quality
2
Forensic signals
-26.5%
ROE
$4.5B
Market cap
Lemonade, Inc. earns a F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-86%Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is -86% and slipping from -40% — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+4.6%/yrShare-count dilution. Diluted share count changed +14% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+4.6%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~4.6% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~14%.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-22.4%
Free Cash Flow$-25.9M
Latest Revenue$737.9M
Return on Equity-31.0%
Revenue Growth YoY+40.2%
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🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown
🔒Peer comparison + filing-change monitoring & alerts
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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Jun 27, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.