Forensic Analysis · Midstream Pipelines · as of Nov 9, 2026
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)
A forensic read on Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
0.8
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
6.2%
ROE
12.8%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 0.8, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by share-count dilution.
What the filings flag
+13.8%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +30% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+13.8%/yr). The count is growing — 68.3M shares in FY2023, 88.5M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~13.8% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~23%.
6.1%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 6.1% in the latest fiscal year and steady across FY2023–FY2025, inside a 1.4-point range. After-tax operating profit was $159M in FY2023 and $244M in FY2025, with operating income at 28.7% of revenue in FY2023, 21.5% in FY2024 and 26.0% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +33% across FY2023–FY2025, from $3.0B to $4.0B, and the return did not fall doing it, so the dollars added over that window earned at least the 5.2% the older base was already earning.
1.9% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 1.9% of revenue and 9% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.28 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 13.8% a year across FY2023–FY2025, and the rate is falling. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
93% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $264M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 93% of free cash flow. Right at the limit of what free cash flow covers — little room before it's funded by debt or the balance sheet. That ratio has been CLIMBING toward the limit — 64% of free cash flow two years back — not just sitting there. Counting the $25M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 101%.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$1.31B
Revenue Growth YoY+12.8%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+24.0%
Net Margin6.2%
Free Cash Flow$284.3M
Return on Equity6.2%
Debt / Equity2.12x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?