Forensic Analysis · General / Diversified · as of Aug 12, 2026
Jakks Pacific Inc (JAKK)
A forensic read on Jakks Pacific Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
3.3
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
6
Forensic signals
18.2
P / E (ttm)
4.0%
ROE
$291M
Market cap
3.93%
Dividend yield
-17.4%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Jakks Pacific Inc earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 3.3, placing it in the Safe zone. 6 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by inventory days.
What the filings flag
53d
FY2024→FY2025
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 40 to 53 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +13% vs -19% in cost of sales). Inventory is outrunning what's being sold — a flag for softening demand or obsolescence risk ahead.
3.9%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 3.9% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from 33% — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+4.2%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +13% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+4.2%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. Note: the share count shows a large one-time jump around FY2014, consistent with a reverse split or bankruptcy reorg rather than gradual buybacks, so the earlier shrinkage doesn't reflect real repurchase discipline. That's ~4.2% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~12%.
FCF ($1M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $11M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($1M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $8M — 132% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$570.7M
Revenue Growth YoY-17.4%
Net Margin1.7%
Free Cash Flow-$1.1M
Return on Equity4.0%
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Jakks Pacific Inc's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 12, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
+14.1%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +14.1% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by inventory up +13% against -19% in cost of sales. The cash-flow cross-check is more mixed: reported earnings ran in line with operating cash by 1% of net operating assets, diverging from the balance-sheet accrual read.
1.9% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 1.9% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.95 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count, and there it has run at about 4.2% a year and is falling.