Forensic Analysis · General / Diversified · as of Sep 25, 2026
Jakks Pacific Inc (JAKK)
A forensic read on Jakks Pacific Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
3.2
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
6
Forensic signals
17.1
P / E (ttm)
4.0%
ROE
$279M
Market cap
4.11%
Dividend yield
-17.4%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Jakks Pacific Inc earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 3.2, placing it in the Safe zone. 6 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by inventory days.
What the filings flag
53d
FY2024→FY2025
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 40 to 53 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +13% vs -19% in cost of sales). Inventory is outrunning what's being sold — a flag for softening demand or obsolescence risk ahead.
3.9%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 3.9% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 28.3%. After-tax operating profit was $50M in FY2023 and $10M in FY2025, with operating income at 8.3% of revenue in FY2023, 5.7% in FY2024 and 2.5% in FY2025. The capital base behind it cannot be compared across FY2023–FY2025: short-term debt is tagged in one of those two fiscal years and not the other, and an untagged line enters this calculation as zero, so any change in the base would be a change in what the filer tagged.
+4.2%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +9% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+4.2%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~4.2% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~8%.
FCF ($1M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $11M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($1M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $8M — 132% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$570.7M
Revenue Growth YoY-17.4%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-10.4%
Net Margin1.7%
Free Cash Flow-$1.1M
Return on Equity4.0%
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Jakks Pacific Inc's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Sep 25, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
+14.1%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +14.1% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by inventory up +13% against -19% in cost of sales. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran in line with operating cash by 1% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 14.1%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.
1.9% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 1.9% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.95 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 4.2% a year, and the rate is falling. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.