Forensic Analysis · Materials / Mining & Chemicals · as of Sep 24, 2026
International Paper Co /New/ (IP)
A forensic read on International Paper Co /New/ built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
1.1
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-5.3
P / E (ttm)
-23.7%
ROE
$18.9B
Market cap
5.62%
Dividend yield
49.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
International Paper Co /New/ earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.1, placing it in the Distress zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).
What the filings flag
+60.0%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +60.0% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash. An accrual is a claim that still has to be collected or written down, so the gap resolves in a later period whichever way it goes. The build is led by PP&E up +82% against revenue +49% and inventory up +35% against +46% in cost of sales. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 29% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 60.0%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.
-7.4%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -7.4% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 4%. The capital base behind it grew +63% across FY2023–FY2025, from $18.3B to $29.9B, while the return fell 11.2 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 4% the older base was already earning.
+20.4%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +45% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+20.4%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~20.4% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~31%.
FCF ($159M)
FY2025
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$23.63B
Revenue Growth YoY+49.3%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+21.4%
Net Margin-14.9%
Free Cash Flow-$159.0M
Return on Equity-23.7%
Debt / Equity0.66x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from International Paper Co /New/'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Sep 24, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
Shareholder returns.Returned $1.0B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($159M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $1.7B — 61% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
$2.5B
FY2025–FY2025
Goodwill impairments.Took $2.5B of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2025 ($2.5B)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.
International Paper Co /New/ (IP) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy