Forensic Analysis · Materials / Mining & Chemicals · as of Aug 11, 2026
International Paper Co /New/ (IP)
A forensic read on International Paper Co /New/ built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.2
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-6.4
P / E (ttm)
-23.7%
ROE
$21.8B
Market cap
4.56%
Dividend yield
49.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
International Paper Co /New/ earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.2, placing it in the Grey zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).
What the filings flag
+60.0%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +60.0% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The build is led by PP&E up +82% against revenue +49% and inventory up +35% against +46% in cost of sales. The cash-flow cross-check is more mixed: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 29% of net operating assets, diverging from the balance-sheet accrual read.
-7.4%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -7.4% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from 9% — well below its ~8% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+11.3%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +38% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+11.3%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~11.3% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~27%.
FCF ($159M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $1.0B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($159M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $1.7B — 61% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$23.63B
Revenue Growth YoY+49.3%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+3.8%
Net Margin-14.9%
Free Cash Flow-$159.0M
Return on Equity-23.7%
Debt / Equity0.66x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from International Paper Co /New/'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
International Paper Co /New/ (IP) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
$2.6B
FY2019–FY2025
Goodwill impairments.Took $2.6B of goodwill writedowns across 3 years (FY2019 ($60M), FY2022 ($76M), FY2025 ($2.5B)) — about 114% of net income over the span. A large writedown means an acquisition turned out worth far less than was paid — a real mark against M&A discipline.