Forensic Analysis · Paper & Forest Products · as of Nov 10, 2026
International Paper Co /New/ (IP)
A forensic read on International Paper Co /New/ built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
0.9
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-30.6%
ROE
49.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
International Paper Co /New/ earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 0.9, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-9.4%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -9.4% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 3.7%. After-tax operating profit was $681M in FY2023 and ($2.2B) in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +30% across FY2023–FY2025, from $18.3B to $23.8B, while the return fell 13.1 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 3.7% the older base was already earning. FY2025's operating profit carried a $2.5B goodwill write-off and a $626M restructuring charge that alone took about 10.3 points off that year's return, so about 10.3 of the 13.1-point fall across FY2023–FY2025 is that charge landing in the latest year rather than the capital earning less. FY2024's operating profit carried a $103M restructuring charge that alone took about 0.5 points off that year's return; FY2024 sits between the two ends of FY2023–FY2025, so the charge shapes the path between them without moving the change across it. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.
+20.4%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +45% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+20.4%/yr). The count is growing — 349.1M shares in FY2023, 505.7M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~20.4% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~31%.
FCF ($159M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $1.0B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($159M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $1.7B — 61% of that. Capex and the payout together ran $1.2B past operating cash flow — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of. New debt covered it: total debt rose $4.3B over FY2025, while cash rose $83M.
$2.5B
FY2025
Goodwill impairments.Took $2.5B of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2025 ($2.5B)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$23.63B
Revenue Growth YoY+49.3%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+21.4%
Net Margin-14.9%
Free Cash Flow-$159.0M
Return on Equity-30.6%
Debt / Equity0.66x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from International Paper Co /New/'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?