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Forensic Analysis · Aerospace & Defense · as of Nov 11, 2026

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

A forensic read on Harley-Davidson, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

B · Sound & dependable
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
4.9
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
2
Forensic signals
10.7%
ROE
-13.8%
Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 4.9, placing it in the Safe zone. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.

What the filings flag

4.7%
FY2025
Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is 4.7% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 7.4%. After-tax operating profit was $625M in FY2023 and $277M in FY2025, with operating income at 13.3% of revenue in FY2023, 8.0% in FY2024 and 8.6% in FY2025. The capital base behind it came down -31% across FY2023–FY2025, from $8.5B to $5.8B, so this return is struck on a smaller base than it started on.
106% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns. Returned $440M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 106% of free cash flow. That is $24M (6%) more than free cash flow covered. Over FY2025 cash rose $1.5B and total debt fell $4.0B, so neither line funded the gap. The FY2025 cash-flow statement filed net cash provided by investing activities of $3.8B; net cash used in financing activities of $3.0B. That ratio has been CLIMBING past free cash flow — 84% of free cash flow two years back — not just sitting there. Counting the $32M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 114%.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$4.47B
Revenue Growth YoY-13.8%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-12.5%
Net Margin7.6%
Free Cash Flow$415.2M
Return on Equity10.7%

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Nov 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.

See a wrong number? Report an error with the filing it should match.