Forensic Analysis · Industrials / Manufacturing / Defense · as of Aug 11, 2026

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

A forensic read on Harley-Davidson, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

D · Weak — demands caution

Forensic grade

Safe

Financial health

4.8

Distress distance

Clean

Earnings quality

Forensic signals

13.3

P / E (ttm)

10.8%

ROE

$2.7B

Market cap

2.92%

Dividend yield

-13.8%

Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 4.8, placing it in the Safe zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.

What the filings flag

8.9%

FY2025

Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is 8.9% in the latest fiscal year and steady — around its ~9% cost of capital, so growth is roughly value-neutral.

106% of FCF

FY2025

Shareholder returns. Returned $440M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 106% of free cash flow. Right at the limit of what free cash flow covers — little room before it's funded by debt or the balance sheet. Counting the $32M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 114%.

-71%

FY2019→FY2020

Dividend — cut. The payout was CUT ~71% in FY2020 (from FY2019) and hasn't been restored since. It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$4.47B

Revenue Growth YoY-13.8%

Revenue CAGR (3yr)-8.1%

Net Margin7.6%

Free Cash Flow$415.2M

Return on Equity10.8%

Debt / Equity0.94x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.