Forensic Analysis · Hospitality & Leisure · as of Nov 8, 2026
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV)
A forensic read on Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Clean
Earnings quality
2
Forensic signals
5.3%
ROE
1.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
5.4%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 5.4% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 9.6%. After-tax operating profit was $437M in FY2023 and $316M in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +27% across FY2023–FY2025, from $4.6B to $5.8B, while the return fell 4.2 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 9.6% the older base was already earning.
396% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $610M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 396% of free cash flow. That is $456M (296%) more than free cash flow covered, and more than operating cash flow as well. It came out of the balance sheet's own liquid holdings, not new debt: cash fell $89M over FY2025, while total debt fell $56M — $89M of the $456M. The FY2025 cash-flow statement filed $2.8B of debt issued against $2.9B repaid; $13M from shares issued; net cash used in investing activities of $146M; net cash used in financing activities of $338M. A payout past free cash flow draws the balance sheet down in every year it continues, which isn't sustainable indefinitely. Counting the $64M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 438%.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$5.05B
Revenue Growth YoY+1.3%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+12.6%
Net Margin1.6%
Free Cash Flow$154.0M
Return on Equity5.3%
Debt / Equity3.53x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?