Forensic Analysis · Paper & Forest Products · as of Nov 8, 2026
Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK)
A forensic read on Graphic Packaging Holding Co built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.7
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
2
Forensic signals
14.0%
ROE
-2.2%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Graphic Packaging Holding Co earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.7, placing it in the Grey zone. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by shareholder returns.
What the filings flag
FCF ($81M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $278M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($81M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $841M — 33% of that. Capex and the payout together ran $359M past operating cash flow — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of. New debt covered part of it: total debt rose $388M over FY2025, while cash rose $104M — $284M of the $359M. The FY2025 cash-flow statement filed $99M of debt issued; net cash used in investing activities of $732M; net cash used in financing activities of $18M.
6.5%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 6.5% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 9.9%. After-tax operating profit was $909M in FY2023 and $612M in FY2025, with operating income at 12.5% of revenue in FY2023, 12.7% in FY2024 and 9.3% in FY2025. The capital base behind it went from $9.2B in FY2023 to $9.4B in FY2025 (+3%), while the revenue it carried went from $9.4B to $8.6B. Across FY2024–FY2025, $2.2B went into capital expenditure and acquisitions against $1.1B of total depreciation and amortisation. The base is struck net of amortisation, write-downs and the current liabilities that fund it, so it moved by less than that spending net of the wear, and this row does not say which of those absorbed the difference.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$8.62B
Revenue Growth YoY-2.2%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-4.4%
Net Margin5.2%
Free Cash Flow-$81.0M
Return on Equity14.0%
Debt / Equity1.66x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Graphic Packaging Holding Co's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?