Forensic Analysis · Materials / Mining & Chemicals · as of Aug 11, 2026

Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK)

A forensic read on Graphic Packaging Holding Co built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

D · Weak — demands caution

Forensic grade

Grey Zone

Financial health

1.7

Distress distance

Clean

Earnings quality

Forensic signals

18.4

P / E (ttm)

13.3%

ROE

$3.5B

Market cap

3.71%

Dividend yield

-2.2%

Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Graphic Packaging Holding Co earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.7, placing it in the Grey zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by shareholder returns.

What the filings flag

FCF ($81M)

FY2025

Shareholder returns. Returned $278M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($81M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $841M — 33% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.

6.2%

FY2025

Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is 6.2% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from 8% — slightly below its ~8% cost of capital — reinvestment is roughly a wash.

$12M

FY2022–FY2022

Goodwill impairments. Took $12M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2022 ($12M)) — about 2% of net income over the span. Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$8.62B

Revenue Growth YoY-2.2%

Revenue CAGR (3yr)-3.0%

Net Margin5.2%

Free Cash Flow-$81.0M

Return on Equity13.3%

Debt / Equity1.66x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.