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Forensic Analysis · Machinery & Fabricated Metal Products · as of Nov 9, 2026

Graco Inc (GGG)

A forensic read on Graco Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

A · High-quality, not compounding
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
9.2
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
2
Forensic signals
19.9%
ROE
5.8%
Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Graco Inc earns an A (High-quality, not compounding) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 9.2, placing it in the Safe zone. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by shareholder returns.

What the filings flag

95% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns. Returned $606M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 95% of free cash flow. Right at the limit of what free cash flow covers — little room before it's funded by debt or the balance sheet. That ratio has been CLIMBING toward the limit — 56% of free cash flow two years back — not just sitting there. Counting the $34M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 100%.
$8M
FY2023
Goodwill impairments. Took $8M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2023 ($8M)) — about 2% of net income over the span. Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$2.24B
Revenue Growth YoY+5.8%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+0.9%
Net Margin23.3%
Free Cash Flow$637.9M
Return on Equity19.9%
Debt / Equity0.00x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Nov 9, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.

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