Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · Industrials / Manufacturing / Defense · as of Jun 27, 2026
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)
A forensic read on Firefly Aerospace Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.9
Altman Z-score
Watch
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-53.2%
ROE
$4.1B
Market cap
Firefly Aerospace Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is 1.9, placing it in the Grey zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio.
What the filings flag
+209.2%Accruals ratio.Net operating assets grew +209.2% relative to their average in FY2025 — the accrual component of earnings. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by -35% of net operating assets.
105d DSOReceivables vs revenue.Days sales outstanding moved from 6 to 105 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables +4495% vs revenue +163%). Receivables are outrunning sales — a flag for aggressive revenue recognition or slipping collections.
-25%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -25% and rising from -149% — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+238.9%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +478% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+238.9%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~238.9% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~478%.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-186.6%
Debt / Equity0.12x
Free Cash Flow$-237.8M
Latest Revenue$159.9M
Return on Equity-25.1%
Revenue Growth YoY+163.0%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on Firefly Aerospace Inc.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about FLY's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown