A forensic read on Dow Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
2.0
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-15.7%
ROE
-7.0%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Dow Inc. earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 2.0, placing it in the Grey zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-2.9%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -2.9% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 2.8%. After-tax operating profit was $1.3B in FY2023 and ($1.3B) in FY2025. The capital base behind it went from $45.1B in FY2023 to $45.5B in FY2025 (+1%), while the revenue it carried went from $44.6B to $40.0B. FY2023's operating profit carried a $741M restructuring charge that took about 1.5 points off that year's return, and FY2025's carried a $690M goodwill write-off and a $303M asset write-down that took about 1.7 points off the latest; so, net of each other, the two charges take about 0.2 points off the -5.7-point change across FY2023–FY2025. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.
FCF ($1.4B)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $1.5B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($1.4B) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $1.0B — 144% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
$690M
FY2025
Goodwill impairments.Took $690M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2025 ($690M)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.
-25%
FY2024→FY2025
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~25% in FY2025 (from FY2024). It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$39.97B
Revenue Growth YoY-7.0%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-5.4%
Net Margin-6.6%
Free Cash Flow-$1.45B
Return on Equity-15.7%
Debt / Equity1.13x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Dow Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?