Forensic Analysis · Railroads · as of Nov 9, 2026

CSX Corp (CSX)

A forensic read on CSX Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

B · Sound & dependable

Forensic grade

Grey Zone

Financial health

1.9

Distress distance

Clean

Earnings quality

Forensic signals

22.5%

ROE

-3.1%

Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

CSX Corp earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.9, placing it in the Grey zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.

What the filings flag

8.7%

FY2025

Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is 8.7% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 10.9%. After-tax operating profit was $4.2B in FY2023 and $3.5B in FY2025, with operating income at 37.5% of revenue in FY2023, 36.1% in FY2024 and 32.1% in FY2025. The capital base behind it went from $38.2B in FY2023 to $39.9B in FY2025 (+4%), while the revenue it carried went from $14.7B to $14.1B.

138% of FCF

FY2025

Shareholder returns. Returned $2.4B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 138% of free cash flow, but 51% of operating cash flow. Returns run ahead of free cash flow because the business is also funding heavy growth capex (usually debt-financed); the payout itself is covered by operating cash — sustainable as long as that spending is genuine expansion, not upkeep. Counting the $54M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 142%.

$272M

FY2024–FY2025

Goodwill impairments. Took $272M of goodwill writedowns across 2 years (FY2024 ($108M), FY2025 ($164M)) — about 4% of net income over the span. Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$14.09B

Revenue Growth YoY-3.1%

Revenue CAGR (2yr)-1.9%

Net Margin20.5%

Free Cash Flow$1.71B

Return on Equity22.5%

Debt / Equity1.43x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Nov 9, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.

See a wrong number? Report an error with the filing it should match.