Forensic Analysis · Coal Mining · as of Nov 10, 2026
Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)
A forensic read on Core Natural Resources, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
2.4
Distress distance
Watch
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-5.8%
ROE
86.2%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Core Natural Resources, Inc. earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 2.4, placing it in the Grey zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-4.1%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -4.1% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 33.3%. After-tax operating profit was $677M in FY2023 and ($144M) in FY2025, with operating income at 31.3% of revenue in FY2023, 15.7% in FY2024 and -4.4% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +72% across FY2023–FY2025, from $2.0B to $3.5B, while the return fell 37.4 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 33.3% the older base was already earning.
+24.5%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +55% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+24.5%/yr). The count is growing — 33.1M shares in FY2023, 51.4M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~24.5% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~36%.
0.8% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.8% of revenue and 155% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.64 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 24.5% a year across FY2023–FY2025 and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
1183% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $251M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 1183% of free cash flow, but 82% of operating cash flow. Returns run ahead of free cash flow because the business is also funding heavy growth capex (usually debt-financed); the payout itself is covered by operating cash — sustainable as long as that spending is genuine expansion, not upkeep. Counting the $33M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 1339%.
-79%
FY2023→FY2024
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~79% in FY2024 (from FY2023). It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies. Measured on total dividend dollars rather than per share: the reported share count steps sharply around FY2025, a stock-split seam between filing vintages rather than a change in the payout, and a split leaves the dollars paid untouched.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$4.16B
Revenue Growth YoY+86.2%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+27.3%
Net Margin-3.7%
Free Cash Flow$21.2M
Return on Equity-5.8%
Debt / Equity0.11x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?