Forensic Analysis · Restaurants · as of Nov 9, 2026

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)

A forensic read on Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

B · Sound & dependable

Forensic grade

Grey Zone

Financial health

2.4

Distress distance

Clean

Earnings quality

Forensic signals

47.4%

ROE

5.4%

Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc earns a B (Sound & dependable) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 2.4, placing it in the Grey zone. 1 forensic signal was flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by shareholder returns.

What the filings flag

168% of FCF

FY2025

Shareholder returns. Returned $2.4B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 168% of free cash flow. That is $978M (68%) more than free cash flow covered, and more than operating cash flow as well. It came out of the balance sheet's own liquid holdings, not new debt: cash and short-term investments fell $374M over FY2025, with total debt flat — $374M of the $978M. The FY2025 cash-flow statement filed $28M of investments purchased; net cash used in investing activities of $35M; net cash used in financing activities of $2.5B. A payout past free cash flow draws the balance sheet down in every year it continues, which isn't sustainable indefinitely. Counting the $120M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 176%.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$11.93B

Revenue Growth YoY+5.4%

Revenue CAGR (2yr)+9.9%

Net Margin12.9%

Free Cash Flow$1.45B

Return on Equity47.4%

Debt / Equity0.00x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Nov 9, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.

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