Forensic Analysis · Paper & Forest Products · as of Nov 11, 2026
Clearwater Paper Corp (CLW)
A forensic read on Clearwater Paper Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
4.0
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-2.2%
ROE
12.4%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Clearwater Paper Corp earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 4.0, placing it in the Safe zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-2.5%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -2.5% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 4.6%. After-tax operating profit was $62M in FY2023 and ($33M) in FY2025, with operating income at 6.9% of revenue in FY2023, -4.7% in FY2024 and -2.7% in FY2025. The capital base behind it went from $1.3B in FY2023 to $1.3B in FY2025 (-2%), while the revenue it carried went from $1.1B to $1.6B. Across FY2024–FY2025, $914M went into capital expenditure and acquisitions against $188M of depreciation excluding $4M of intangible-asset amortisation. The base is struck net of amortisation, write-downs and the current liabilities that fund it, so it moved by less than that spending net of the wear, and this row does not say which of those absorbed the difference. FY2025's operating profit carried a $48M goodwill write-off and a $6M asset write-down that alone took about 3.3 points off that year's return, so about 3.3 of the 7.1-point fall across FY2023–FY2025 is that charge landing in the latest year rather than the capital earning less. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.
FCF ($76M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $17M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($76M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $12M — 140% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
0.79×
FY2023–FY2025
Cash conversion.Over FY2023–FY2025, cumulative operating cash flow was 0.79× cumulative net income before $48.0M of non-cash goodwill impairment. Cash is lagging reported profit. The shortfall is profit tied up in working capital rather than collected — the accrual and receivables lines below show where.Cash conversion: operating cash flow divided by net income, the share of profit that arrived as cash.
68d
FY2024→FY2025
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 59 to 68 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +9% vs +10% in cost of sales). Inventory is building a little faster than sales — watch for markdowns.
$48M
FY2025
Goodwill impairments.Took $48M of goodwill writedowns across 1 year (FY2025 ($48M)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$1.56B
Revenue Growth YoY+12.4%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+17.0%
Net Margin-1.2%
Free Cash Flow-$76.5M
Return on Equity-2.2%
Debt / Equity0.42x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Clearwater Paper Corp's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?