Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Jun 28, 2026
CARLSMED, INC. (CARL)
A forensic read on CARLSMED, INC. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
4.9
Altman Z-score
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
-40.3%
ROE
$320M
Market cap
CARLSMED, INC. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is 4.9, placing it in the Safe zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio.
What the filings flag
+187.9%Accruals ratio.Net operating assets grew +187.9% relative to their average in FY2025 — the accrual component of earnings. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran in line with operating cash by -4% of net operating assets.
-80%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -80% and rising from -661% — well below its ~10% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+249.7%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +250% over the last 1 years to FY2025 (+249.7%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~249.7% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2024 has been diluted ~250%.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-58.7%
Debt / Equity0.16x
Free Cash Flow$-29.6M
Latest Revenue$50.5M
Return on Equity-30.0%
Revenue Growth YoY+85.9%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on CARLSMED, INC.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about CARL's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown