Axogen, Inc. (AXGN) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · General / Diversified · as of Jun 27, 2026
Axogen, Inc. (AXGN)
A forensic read on Axogen, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-0.4
Altman Z-score
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-20.7%
ROE
$2.4B
Market cap
Axogen, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is -0.4, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-4%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -4% and rising from -15% — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+3.1%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +9% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+3.1%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~3.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~9%.
+13.4%Accruals ratio.Net operating assets grew +13.4% relative to their average in FY2025 — the accrual component of earnings. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit sits in receivables, inventory or capitalized costs rather than cash. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by -12% of net operating assets.
13% of revStock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 13% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.65 per diluted share. Meaningful — reported free cash flow flatters the economics, since SBC is a real cost paid in shares.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-7.0%
Debt / Equity0.39x
Free Cash Flow$-2.9M
Latest Revenue$225.2M
Return on Equity-12.2%
Revenue Growth YoY+20.2%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on Axogen, Inc.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about AXGN's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown