Forensic Analysis · Industrial & Scientific Instruments · as of Nov 9, 2026
Axogen, Inc. (AXGN)
A forensic read on Axogen, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-0.4
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-13.5%
ROE
20.2%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Axogen, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads -0.4, placing it in the Distress zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-4.0%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -4.0% in the latest fiscal year, against -12.5% in FY2023, having run between -12.5% and -1.8% across FY2023–FY2025 with no direction held. After-tax operating profit was ($17M) in FY2023 and ($6M) in FY2025, with operating income at -13.5% of revenue in FY2023, -1.8% in FY2024 and -3.5% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +14% across FY2023–FY2025, from $135M to $154M, and the return did not fall doing it, so the dollars added over that window earned at least the -12.5% the older base was already earning.
+12.1%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +12.1% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. Net operating assets also rose $1.7M through acquisitions (increase in goodwill and intangibles); that purchase is investing and is excluded from this ratio. The build is led by inventory up +28% against +28% in cost of sales and payables paid down 26% against +28% in cost of sales. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 12% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 12.1%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
238d
FY2024→FY2025
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 226 to 238 FY2024→FY2025 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +28% vs +28% in cost of sales). Inventory is building a little faster than sales — watch for markdowns.
+3.6%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +7% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+3.6%/yr). The count is growing — 42.9M shares in FY2023, 46.1M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~3.6% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~7%.
13% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 13% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.65 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 3.6% a year across FY2023–FY2025 and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$225.2M
Revenue Growth YoY+20.2%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+19.0%
Net Margin-7.0%
Free Cash Flow-$2.9M
Return on Equity-13.5%
Debt / Equity0.38x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Axogen, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?