Forensic Analysis · Communication Services / Telecom · as of Jun 27, 2026
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS)
A forensic read on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
2.8
Altman Z-score
Watch
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-32.3%
ROE
$27.7B
Market cap
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is 2.8, placing it in the Safe zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio.
What the filings flag
+158.6%Accruals ratio.Net operating assets grew +158.6% relative to their average in FY2025 — the accrual component of earnings. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by -21% of net operating assets.
194d DSOReceivables vs revenue.Days sales outstanding moved from 116 to 194 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables +2595% vs revenue +1512%). Receivables are outrunning sales — a flag for aggressive revenue recognition or slipping collections.
-14%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -14% and rising from -47% — well below its ~8% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+106.4%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +213% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+106.4%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~106.4% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~213%.
67% of revStock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 67% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.19 per diluted share. Meaningful — reported free cash flow flatters the economics, since SBC is a real cost paid in shares.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-482.2%
Debt / Equity0.93x
Free Cash Flow$-1.14B
Latest Revenue$70.9M
Return on Equity-14.3%
Revenue Growth YoY+1511.8%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on AST SpaceMobile, Inc.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about ASTS's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown