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Forensic Analysis · Air Transportation · as of Nov 10, 2026

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)

A forensic read on Alaska Air Group, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
0.1
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
1
Forensic signals
2.4%
ROE
21.3%
Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Alaska Air Group, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 0.1, placing it in the Distress zone. 1 forensic signal was flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.

What the filings flag

1.6%
FY2025
Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is 1.6% in the latest fiscal year, against 2.8% in FY2023, having run between 1.6% and 3.6% across FY2023–FY2025 with no direction held. After-tax operating profit was $287M in FY2023 and $208M in FY2025, with operating income at 3.8% of revenue in FY2023, 4.9% in FY2024 and 2.1% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +31% across FY2023–FY2025, from $10.2B to $13.3B, while the return fell 1.2 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 2.8% the older base was already earning. $1.4B of the $13.3B base at FY2025 is short-term investments (10.4%) — securities held beside cash, which the base keeps because only cash is subtracted from it; they earn the balance sheet's yield, which is not in the operating profit above, so this rate understates what the operating capital earns.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$14.24B
Revenue Growth YoY+21.3%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+16.9%
Net Margin0.7%
Free Cash Flow$1.03B
Return on Equity2.4%
Debt / Equity1.29x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Nov 10, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.

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