Forensic Analysis · Transportation / Logistics · as of Aug 11, 2026

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)

A forensic read on American Airlines Group Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

D · Weak — demands caution

Forensic grade

Distress

Financial health

-1.3

Distress distance

Clean

Earnings quality

Forensic signals

-32.6

P / E (ttm)

$10.1B

Market cap

0.00%

Dividend yield

0.8%

Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

American Airlines Group Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads -1.3, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.

What the filings flag

2.3%

FY2025

Return on invested capital. Return on invested capital is 2.3% in the latest fiscal year and steady — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.

FCF ($373M)

FY2022

Shareholder returns. Returned $21M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2022, but free cash flow was ($373M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $2.2B — 1% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.

+0.3%/yr

FY2022–FY2025

Share count. Diluted share count changed +1% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+0.3%/yr). Roughly flat — the count is neither shrinking nor growing meaningfully. Per-share value isn't being meaningfully helped or hurt by the count.

-78%

FY2019→FY2020

Dividend — cut. The payout was CUT ~78% in FY2020 (from FY2019) and hasn't been restored since. It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$54.63B

Revenue Growth YoY+0.8%

Revenue CAGR (3yr)+3.7%

Net Margin0.2%

Free Cash Flow-$680.0M

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.