Forensic Analysis · Retail / Consumer Discretionary · as of Jun 27, 2026
Wayfair Inc. (W)
A forensic read on Wayfair Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-5.3
Altman Z-score
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-659.9%
ROE
$12.5B
Market cap
Wayfair Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is -5.2, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-4047%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -4047% and slipping from -11% — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+6.9%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +21% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+6.9%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~6.9% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~21%.
3% of revStock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 3% of revenue and 72% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $2.62 per diluted share. Heavy — a large slice of 'free cash flow' is really being paid out in stock, so the true owner cash per share is well below the headline.
stoppedShareholder returns — halted.Capital returns have STOPPED — $75M of buybacks + dividends in FY2022, but ~$0 in FY2024. A halt usually means the company is conserving cash; understand why before reading it as neutral.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-2.5%
Free Cash Flow$464.0M
Latest Revenue$12.46B
Revenue Growth YoY+5.1%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on Wayfair Inc.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about W's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown