Forensic Analysis · Refining & Downstream · as of Nov 9, 2026

Valvoline Inc (VVV)

A forensic read on Valvoline Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.

C · Mixed — selective

Forensic grade

Grey Zone

Financial health

1.2

Distress distance

Clean

Earnings quality

Forensic signals

80.4%

ROE

5.6%

Revenue growth

This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.

Valvoline Inc earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.2, placing it in the Grey zone. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by cash conversion.

What the filings flag

0.28×

FY2023–FY2025

Cash conversion. Over FY2023–FY2025, cumulative operating cash flow was 0.28× cumulative net income. Reported profit is not turning into cash. The shortfall is profit tied up in working capital rather than collected — the accrual and receivables lines below show where.Cash conversion: operating cash flow divided by net income, the share of profit that arrived as cash.

202% of FCF

FY2025

Shareholder returns. Returned $77M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 202% of free cash flow, but 26% of operating cash flow. Returns run ahead of free cash flow because the business is also funding heavy growth capex (usually debt-financed); the payout itself is covered by operating cash — sustainable as long as that spending is genuine expansion, not upkeep. Counting the $10M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 230%.

Key fundamentals

Latest Revenue$1.71B

Revenue Growth YoY+5.6%

Revenue CAGR (2yr)+8.8%

Net Margin12.3%

Free Cash Flow$38.0M

Return on Equity80.4%

Debt / Equity3.17x

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Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Nov 9, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.

See a wrong number? Report an error with the filing it should match.