Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Sep 24, 2026
Vericel Corp (VCEL)
A forensic read on Vericel Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
12.9
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
84.6
P / E (ttm)
4.7%
ROE
$2.0B
Market cap
16.5%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Vericel Corp earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 12.9, placing it in the Safe zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
2.9%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 2.9% in the latest fiscal year, against -4% in FY2021, having run between -7.3% and 2.9% across FY2021–FY2025 with no direction held — well below the ~10% cost of capital we hold this sector to, and it has been across FY2014–FY2025, so reinvested dollars have not been earning their keep. The capital base behind it grew +127% across FY2021–FY2025, from $149M to $339M, and the return did not fall doing it, so the dollars added over that window earned at least the -4% the older base was already earning.
+3.4%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +11% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+3.4%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~3.4% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~10%.
+15.7%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +15.7% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by receivables up +38% against revenue +16% and payables paid down 34% against +9% in cost of sales. This is the fourth straight fiscal year of building accruals — an even longer streak than the 3-year mark that already signals a materially stronger tell. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 15% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 15.7%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$276.3M
Revenue Growth YoY+16.5%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+18.9%
Net Margin6.0%
Free Cash Flow$24.7M
Return on Equity4.7%
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Vericel Corp's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 14% of revenue and 157% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.74 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 3.5% a year, and the rate is falling. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.