Forensic Analysis · Energy / Oil & Gas · as of Jun 27, 2026
USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)
A forensic read on USA Rare Earth, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
3.6
Altman Z-score
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-9.8%
ROE
$4.7B
Market cap
USA Rare Earth, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is 3.6, placing it in the Safe zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio.
What the filings flag
+117.6%Accruals ratio.Net operating assets grew +117.6% relative to their average in FY2025 — the accrual component of earnings. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by -276% of net operating assets.
-16%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -16% and rising from -27% — well below its ~8% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+64.6%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +65% over the last 1 years to FY2025 (+64.6%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~64.6% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2024 has been diluted ~65%.
533% of revStock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 533% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.09 per diluted share. Meaningful — reported free cash flow flatters the economics, since SBC is a real cost paid in shares.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-18110.7%
Free Cash Flow$-86.3M
Latest Revenue$1.6M
Return on Equity-60.2%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on USA Rare Earth, Inc.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about USAR's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown