Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Aug 12, 2026
Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB)
A forensic read on Upstream Bio, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
12.8
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
-2.5
P / E (ttm)
-42.2%
ROE
$386M
Market cap
0.00%
Dividend yield
20.4%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Upstream Bio, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 12.8, placing it in the Grey zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).
What the filings flag
+49.3%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +49.3% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The build is led by payables paid down 33% against +20% in revenue and receivables up +9% against revenue +20%. The cash-flow cross-check is more mixed: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 5% of net operating assets, diverging from the balance-sheet accrual read.
n/m (stock split)
FY2024–FY2025
Share count (stock split).Diluted share count changed +294% over the last 1 year to FY2025, but that includes a large one-time change around FY2025 consistent with a stock split or reverse split, not gradual buybacks or issuance — a split changes the count with NO effect on any holder's proportional ownership, so the raw +293.6%/yr figure isn't a real buyback/dilution read here.
362% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 362% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.19 per diluted share. It is a real cost, but it is not a cash cost — no cash left the business, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. The bill lands on the share count instead, and this filer's count is not on file in enough years to say how much of the company changed hands to pay it.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$2.9M
Revenue Growth YoY+20.4%
Net Margin-5026.0%
Free Cash Flow-$133.4M
Return on Equity-42.2%
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Upstream Bio, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?