Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Jun 28, 2026
Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB)
A forensic read on Upstream Bio, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
12.8
Altman Z-score
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-43.8%
ROE
$367M
Market cap
Upstream Bio, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is 12.8, placing it in the Safe zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio.
What the filings flag
+49.3%Accruals ratio.Net operating assets grew +49.3% relative to their average in FY2025 — the accrual component of earnings. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by -5% of net operating assets.
-53%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -53% and slipping from -37% — well below its ~10% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+861.6%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +1723% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+861.6%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~861.6% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~1723%.
362% of revStock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 362% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.19 per diluted share. Meaningful — reported free cash flow flatters the economics, since SBC is a real cost paid in shares.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-5026.0%
Free Cash Flow$-133.4M
Latest Revenue$2.9M
Return on Equity-42.2%
Revenue Growth YoY+20.4%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on Upstream Bio, Inc.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about UPB's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown