Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Sep 26, 2026
Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB)
A forensic read on Upstream Bio, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
12.8
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
-1.8
P / E (ttm)
-42.2%
ROE
$283M
Market cap
0.00%
Dividend yield
20.4%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Upstream Bio, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 12.8, placing it in the Grey zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).
What the filings flag
+49.3%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +49.3% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash. An accrual is a claim that still has to be collected or written down, so the gap resolves in a later period whichever way it goes. The build is led by payables paid down 33% against +20% in revenue and receivables up +9% against revenue +20%. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 5% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 49.3%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.
+293.6%/yr
FY2024–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +294% over the last 1 year to FY2025 (+293.6%/yr). The count is growing — 13.7M shares in FY2024, 53.9M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~293.6% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2024 has been diluted ~75%.
362% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 362% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.19 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 293.6% a year across FY2024–FY2025, above the level at which the count is a material claim on a stake, and only one year's change is on file — enough to state what a holder gave up, not enough to say whether the rate is climbing or coming down. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$2.9M
Revenue Growth YoY+20.4%
Net Margin-5026.0%
Free Cash Flow-$133.4M
Return on Equity-42.2%
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Upstream Bio, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?