Forensic Analysis · Transportation / Logistics · as of Aug 11, 2026
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC)
A forensic read on Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
F · Poor — capital at risk
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-0.9
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-4.4
P / E (ttm)
-27.9%
ROE
$1.6B
Market cap
0.00%
Dividend yield
-1.4%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. earns an F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads -0.9, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-2.5%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -2.5% in the latest fiscal year and steady — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+1.5%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +5% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+1.5%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~1.5% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~4%.
stopped
FY2023→FY2024
Shareholder returns — halted.Capital returns have STOPPED — $1M of buybacks + dividends in FY2023, but ~$0 in FY2024. A halt usually means the company is conserving cash.
+17.0%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +17.0% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by receivables up +16% against revenue -1%. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran ahead of operating cash by 97% of net operating assets.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$3.72B
Revenue Growth YoY-1.4%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+3.8%
Net Margin-3.7%
Free Cash Flow-$600.0M
Return on Equity-27.9%
Debt / Equity1.25x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?