Forensic Analysis · General / Diversified · as of Jun 27, 2026
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC)
A forensic read on Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
F · Poor — capital at risk
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-1.1
Altman Z-score
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-88.6%
ROE
$1.8B
Market cap
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. earns a F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is -1.1, placing it in the Distress zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-2%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -2% and steady — well below its ~9% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+1.6%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +5% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+1.6%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~1.6% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~5%.
stoppedShareholder returns — halted.Capital returns have STOPPED — $1M of buybacks + dividends in FY2023, but ~$0 in FY2024. A halt usually means the company is conserving cash; understand why before reading it as neutral.
suspendedDividend — suspended.The dividend has been SUSPENDED — $1M paid in FY2023, then $0 in FY2024. A suspension is a major signal the board is conserving cash; the prior payment history doesn't offset it.
+17.0%Accruals ratio.Net operating assets grew +17.0% relative to their average in FY2025 — the accrual component of earnings. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit sits in receivables, inventory or capitalized costs rather than cash. The cash-flow cross-check agrees: reported earnings ran ahead of operating cash by +97% of net operating assets.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-3.7%
Debt / Equity1.25x
Free Cash Flow$-600.0M
Latest Revenue$3.72B
Return on Equity-27.9%
Revenue Growth YoY-1.4%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about ULCC's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown