Forensic Analysis · Air Transportation · as of Nov 9, 2026
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC)
A forensic read on Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
F · Poor — capital at risk
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-1.1
Distress distance
2
Forensic signals
-25.0%
ROE
-1.4%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. earns an F (Poor — capital at risk) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads -1.1, placing it in the Distress zone. 2 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-2.7%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -2.7% in the latest fiscal year, against -0.1% in FY2023, having run between -2.7% and 1.5% across FY2023–FY2025 with no direction held. After-tax operating profit was ($2M) in FY2023 and ($118M) in FY2025, with operating income at -0.1% of revenue in FY2023, 1.5% in FY2024 and -4.0% in FY2025. The capital base behind it grew +44% across FY2023–FY2025, from $3.0B to $4.3B, while the return fell 2.6 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the -0.1% the older base was already earning.
+17.0%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +17.0% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by receivables up +16% against revenue -1%. A cash-flow measure on the same base agrees: reported earnings ran ahead of operating cash by 97% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 17.0%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$3.72B
Revenue Growth YoY-1.4%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+1.9%
Net Margin-3.7%
Free Cash Flow-$600.0M
Return on Equity-25.0%
Debt / Equity1.25x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?