Forensic Analysis · Utilities · as of Aug 11, 2026
Txnm Energy Inc (TXNM)
A forensic read on Txnm Energy Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
1.0
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
6
Forensic signals
30.1
P / E (ttm)
4.5%
ROE
$5.9B
Market cap
2.94%
Dividend yield
9.9%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Txnm Energy Inc earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.0, placing it in the Distress zone. 6 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
3.5%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 3.5% in the latest fiscal year and steady — well below its ~6% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+5.9%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +19% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+5.9%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~5.9% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~16%.
0.4% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.4% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.09 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count: holders gave up about 6.0% of the company a year, and that rate is not falling. That is the figure to weigh, not the share of free cash flow.
FCF ($611M)
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $175M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025, but free cash flow was ($611M) after capex — there was no free cash flow to fund the payout from at all, though operating cash flow alone was $584M — 30% of that. The entire return is coming from debt or cash reserves, not cash the business itself generated — a harder case than returns merely running ahead of free cash flow, since here there was none to run ahead of.
+16.4%
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$2.17B
Revenue Growth YoY+9.9%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)-1.3%
Net Margin7.0%
Free Cash Flow-$611.4M
Return on Equity4.5%
Debt / Equity1.59x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Txnm Energy Inc's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +16.4% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by receivables up +16% against revenue +10% and inventory up +9% on the year. The cash-flow cross-check is more mixed: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 5% of net operating assets, diverging from the balance-sheet accrual read.
23d
FY2022→FY2023
Inventory days.Days inventory outstanding moved from 16 to 23 FY2022→FY2023 (against cost of goods sold; inventory +47% vs -15% in cost of sales). Inventory is building a little faster than sales — watch for markdowns.
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