Forensic Analysis · Automotive / Vehicle Manufacturing · as of Sep 16, 2026
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
A forensic read on Tesla, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
15.5
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
378.0
P / E (ttm)
4.6%
ROE
$1.5T
Market cap
-2.9%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Tesla, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 15.5, placing it in the Safe zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
3.5%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 3.5% in the latest fiscal year, against 22% in FY2021, having run between 3.5% and 30.4% across FY2021–FY2025 with no direction held — below the ~9% cost of capital we hold this sector to. If that gap persists through the cycle, incremental reinvestment reduces rather than creates value per share. The capital base behind it grew +251% across FY2021–FY2025, from $25.9B to $91.1B, while the return fell 18.9 points, so the dollars added over that window earned less than the 22% the older base was already earning.
+13.0%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +13.0% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. This is the fifth straight fiscal year of building accruals — an even longer streak than the 3-year mark that already signals a materially stronger tell. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 16% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 13.0%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.
+0.5%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share count.Diluted share count changed +2% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+0.5%/yr). Roughly flat — the count is neither shrinking nor growing meaningfully. Per-share value isn't being meaningfully helped or hurt by the count.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin4.0%
Debt / Equity0.10x
Free Cash Flow$6.22B
Latest Revenue$94.83B
Return on Equity4.6%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+5.2%
Revenue Growth YoY-2.9%
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Tesla, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?