Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · Energy / Oil & Gas · as of Aug 11, 2026
Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL)
A forensic read on Texas Pacific Land Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
19.3
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
48.4
P / E (ttm)
33.0%
ROE
$24.3B
Market cap
0.67%
Dividend yield
13.1%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Texas Pacific Land Corp earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 19.2, placing it in the Safe zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).
What the filings flag
+53.1%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +53.1% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. This is the fourth straight fiscal year of building accruals — an even longer streak than the 3-year mark that already signals a materially stronger tell. The cash-flow cross-check is more mixed: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 6% of net operating assets, diverging from the balance-sheet accrual read.
n/m (stock split)
FY2022–FY2025
Share count (stock split).Diluted share count changed +198% over the last 3 years to FY2025, but that includes a large one-time change around FY2023 consistent with a stock split or reverse split, not gradual buybacks or issuance — a split changes the count with NO effect on any holder's proportional ownership, so the raw +43.9%/yr figure isn't a real buyback/dilution read here.
-60%
FY2022→FY2023
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~60% in FY2023 (from FY2022) and hasn't been restored since. It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies. Measured on total dividend dollars rather than per share: the reported share count steps sharply around FY2022, a stock-split seam between filing vintages rather than a change in the payout, and a split leaves the dollars paid untouched.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$798.2M
Revenue Growth YoY+13.1%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+6.1%
Net Margin60.3%
Return on Equity33.0%
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Texas Pacific Land Corp's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?