Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
Forensic Analysis · Energy / Oil & Gas · as of Sep 24, 2026
Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL)
A forensic read on Texas Pacific Land Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
19.3
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
44.9
P / E (ttm)
33.0%
ROE
$23.2B
Market cap
0.79%
Dividend yield
13.1%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Texas Pacific Land Corp earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 19.2, placing it in the Safe zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).
What the filings flag
+53.1%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +53.1% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash. An accrual is a claim that still has to be collected or written down, so the gap resolves in a later period whichever way it goes. The build is led by PP&E up +34% against revenue +13%. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 6% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 53.1%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.
-0.1%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share count.Diluted share count changed 0% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (-0.1%/yr). Roughly flat — buybacks ($8M) are about offsetting stock comp ($15M), not shrinking the count. Per-share value isn't being meaningfully helped or hurt by the count.
-57%
FY2024→FY2025
Dividend — cut.The payout was CUT ~57% in FY2025 (from FY2024). It still returns some cash, but it is NOT the dependable, rising dividend an unbroken streak implies.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$798.2M
Revenue Growth YoY+13.1%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+12.4%
Net Margin60.3%
Return on Equity33.0%
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Texas Pacific Land Corp's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?