Forensic Analysis · Industrials / Manufacturing / Defense · as of Aug 11, 2026
Transmedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)
A forensic read on Transmedics Group, Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Safe
Financial health
8.5
Distress distance
Watch
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
16.2
P / E (ttm)
40.2%
ROE
$3.0B
Market cap
37.1%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Transmedics Group, Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 8.5, placing it in the Safe zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by accruals ratio (% of noa).
What the filings flag
+71.5%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +71.5% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building sharply — a large slice of profit sits in operating assets, not cash; Richardson/Sloan link high accruals to weaker future returns as they reverse. The build is led by PP&E up +15% against revenue +37%. The cash-flow cross-check is more mixed: reported earnings ran in line with operating cash by 1% of net operating assets, diverging from the balance-sheet accrual read.
+11.1%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +37% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+11.1%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~11.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~27%.
6% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 6% of revenue and 28% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.91 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count: holders gave up about 11.1% of the company a year, and that rate is not falling. That is the figure to weigh, not the share of free cash flow.
9.9%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 9.9% in the latest fiscal year and rising from -47% — around its ~9% cost of capital, so growth is roughly value-neutral.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$605.5M
Revenue Growth YoY+37.1%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+86.4%
Net Margin31.4%
Free Cash Flow$133.6M
Return on Equity40.2%
Debt / Equity0.02x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Transmedics Group, Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?