Forensic Analysis · Homebuilders & Residential Construction · as of Nov 9, 2026
Sunrun Inc. (RUN)
A forensic read on Sunrun Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-0.2
Distress distance
6
Forensic signals
15.8%
ROE
45.1%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Sunrun Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads -0.2, placing it in the Distress zone. 6 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by cash conversion.
What the filings flag
-7.19×
FY2023–FY2025
Cash conversion.Over FY2023–FY2025, cumulative operating cash flow was -7.19× cumulative net income before $4.3B of non-cash goodwill impairment. Reported profit is not turning into cash. The shortfall is profit tied up in working capital rather than collected — the accrual and receivables lines below show where.Cash conversion: operating cash flow divided by net income, the share of profit that arrived as cash.
-0.5%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -0.5% in the latest fiscal year, against -8.5% in FY2023, having run between -16.1% and -0.5% across FY2023–FY2025 with no direction held. After-tax operating profit was ($1.6B) in FY2023 and ($100M) in FY2025, with operating income at -87.6% of revenue in FY2023, -181.3% in FY2024 and -4.3% in FY2025. The capital base behind it went from $18.3B in FY2023 to $19.2B in FY2025 (+5%), while the revenue it carried went from $2.3B to $3.0B. FY2023's operating profit carried a $1.2B goodwill write-off that alone took about 5.0 points off that year's return, so about 5.0 of the 8.0-point rise across FY2023–FY2025 is that charge leaving the base year rather than the capital earning more. FY2024's operating profit carried a $3.1B goodwill write-off that alone took about 13.6 points off that year's return; FY2024 sits between the two ends of FY2023–FY2025, so the charge shapes the path between them without moving the change across it. A non-cash write-down lowers the reported return in the year it lands.
+10.5%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +22% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+10.5%/yr). The count is growing — 216.6M shares in FY2023, 264.5M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~10.5% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~18%.
4% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 4% of revenue in FY2025 — about $0.41 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 10.5% a year across FY2023–FY2025 and that rate is not falling, so total profit has to grow by that much annually before any of it reaches a share. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
+13.4%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +13.4% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not by total assets, which is what the Forensic Screens card's own accrual row divides by. Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by receivables up +54% against revenue +45% and inventory up +25% against +45% in revenue. A cash-flow measure on the same base disagrees: reported earnings ran in line with operating cash by 5% of net operating assets, against an accruals ratio of 13.4%. The two are computed differently: the accruals ratio is the change in net operating assets over average net operating assets, while the cash-flow figure is net income less operating cash flow over that same average. Read them as two results, not one.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
$4.3B
FY2023–FY2024
Goodwill impairments.Took $4.3B of goodwill writedowns across 2 years (FY2023 ($1.2B), FY2024 ($3.1B)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$2.96B
Revenue Growth YoY+45.1%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+14.4%
Net Margin15.2%
Return on Equity15.8%
Debt / Equity4.69x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Sunrun Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?