Forensic Analysis · Transportation / Logistics · as of Aug 7, 2026
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)
A forensic read on Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
C · Mixed — selective
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
2.6
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
6
Forensic signals
19.6
P / E (ttm)
42.5%
ROE
$82.4B
Market cap
1.56%
Dividend yield
8.8%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd earns a C (Mixed — selective) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 2.6, placing it in the Grey zone. 6 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by share-count dilution.
What the filings flag
+2.4%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +7% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+2.4%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~2.4% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~7%.
+11.5%
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets grew +11.5% relative to their own average in FY2025 — scaled by NOA itself, not total assets (see the Forensic Screens card's differently-scaled Sloan Accrual Ratio for that read). Accruals are building faster than is comfortable — part of profit is sitting in the balance sheet rather than turning to cash. The build is led by PP&E up +12% against revenue +9%. The cash-flow cross-check is more mixed: reported earnings ran behind operating cash by 8% of net operating assets, diverging from the balance-sheet accrual read.
13.8%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 13.8% in the latest fiscal year and rising from -2% — a modest positive spread over its ~9% cost of capital — growth adds value, though not dramatically.
1.0% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 1.0% of revenue and 14% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.64 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count, and there it has run at about 2.6% a year and is falling.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$17.93B
Revenue Growth YoY+8.8%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+26.6%
Net Margin23.8%
Free Cash Flow$1.24B
Return on Equity42.5%
Debt / Equity2.13x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 7, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
160% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $2.0B to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 160% of free cash flow, but 31% of operating cash flow. Returns run ahead of free cash flow because the business is also funding heavy growth capex (usually debt-financed); the payout itself is covered by operating cash — sustainable as long as that spending is genuine expansion, not upkeep. Counting the $175M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 175%.
$2.3B
FY2020–FY2024
Goodwill impairments.Took $2.3B of goodwill writedowns across 4 years (FY2022 ($576M), FY2023 ($576M), FY2024 ($576M)). Writedowns mean past acquisitions underperformed what was paid for them.