Forensic Analysis · Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology · as of Nov 11, 2026
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE)
A forensic read on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-9.6
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-657.1%
ROE
20.2%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads -9.6, placing it in the Distress zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-49.4%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -49.4% in the latest fiscal year, against -45.1% in FY2023, having run between -49.4% and -42.7% across FY2023–FY2025 with no direction held. After-tax operating profit was ($450M) in FY2023 and ($423M) in FY2025, with operating income at -131.1% of revenue in FY2023, -95.7% in FY2024 and -79.5% in FY2025. The capital base behind it came down -14% across FY2023–FY2025, from $997M to $856M, so this return is struck on a smaller base than it started on. $444M of the $856M base at FY2025 is short-term investments and long-term marketable securities (51.8%) — securities held beside cash, which the base keeps because only cash is subtracted from it; they earn the balance sheet's yield, which is not in the operating profit above, so the loss on the operating capital is larger than this rate shows.
+15.8%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +34% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (+15.8%/yr). The count is growing — 73.5M shares in FY2023, 98.6M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~15.8% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2023 has been diluted ~25%.
n/m (sign flip)
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets flipped from positive to negative FY2024→FY2025 (FY2024 $+88.0M to FY2025 $-494.0M) — the standard accruals ratio divides by the average of the two, which collapses toward zero right as the sign changes, so the resulting percentage is a denominator artifact, not a real accrual measurement. Treat this as a structural balance-sheet shift to understand on its own terms rather than a clean or dirty accruals read.Accruals ratio: the year-over-year change in net operating assets, relative to their own average.NOA (net operating assets): the money tied up in running the business, operating assets minus operating liabilities.
86d DSO
FY2024→FY2025
Receivables vs revenue.Days sales outstanding moved from 80 to 86 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables +30% vs revenue +20%). Receivables are creeping up relative to sales. Across FY2023–FY2025 the day count ran 62 → 80 → 86 days — the latest step continues a climb that was already under way, which is the persistence that separates a collection problem from a busy quarter. Measured against the same quarter twelve months earlier — like-for-like on the calendar, so an ordinary seasonal build cannot produce it — receivables took longer to collect in 6 consecutive quarters (Jun 2025 +2, Sep 2025 +3, Dec 2025 +2, Mar 2026 +16, Jun 2026 +17, Sep 2026 +24 days). In the latest of them the receivable balance grew +47% against sales +8%, so more of a quarter's billings were still outstanding at the period end than a year earlier — money the company has recognized and not yet been paid. Both figures are measured on period-end balances rather than the beginning-plus-ending average, because averaging needs the balance a year before every reading — FY2024's opening balance is on file, but across the 3 fiscal years read here (FY2023–FY2025) the average yields only 2 day counts (1 step), too few to tell a climb from one year's move.DSO (days sales outstanding): the average days the company waits to collect cash after a sale.
23% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 23% of revenue in FY2025 — about $1.55 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 15.8% a year across FY2023–FY2025, and the rate is falling. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$673.0M
Revenue Growth YoY+20.2%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)+24.5%
Net Margin-85.4%
Free Cash Flow-$472.0M
Return on Equity-657.1%
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?