Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Jun 27, 2026
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE)
A forensic read on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-9.6
Altman Z-score
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
-414.2%
ROE
$3.0B
Market cap
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its Altman Z-score is -9.6, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-58%Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -58% and slipping from -45% — well below its ~10% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+13.7%/yrShare-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +41% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+13.7%/yr). The count is GROWING — existing holders are being diluted. That's ~13.7% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~41%.
86d DSOReceivables vs revenue.Days sales outstanding moved from 80 to 86 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables +30% vs revenue +20%). Receivables are creeping up relative to sales — watch the trend.
23% of revStock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 23% of revenue in FY2025 — about $1.55 per diluted share. Meaningful — reported free cash flow flatters the economics, since SBC is a real cost paid in shares.
Key fundamentals
Net Margin-85.4%
Free Cash Flow$-472.0M
Latest Revenue$673.0M
Revenue Growth YoY+20.2%
Go deeper — free with an account
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. An account adds the full interactive deep-dive on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.:
🔒The written investment read — what the numbers mean, in plain English
🔒Ask anything about RARE's filings — AI Q&A across the 10-K, 10-Qs & 8-Ks
🔒Interactive valuation — reverse-DCF sliders, Monte Carlo & scenario stress
🔒Calibrated 12-month price forecast, with the math shown