Forensic Analysis · Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals / Biotech · as of Aug 11, 2026
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE)
A forensic read on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
-7.8
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
5
Forensic signals
-4.4
P / E (ttm)
$2.6B
Market cap
0.00%
Dividend yield
20.2%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads -7.8, placing it in the Distress zone. 5 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
-58.1%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is -58.1% in the latest fiscal year and slipping from -45% — well below its ~10% cost of capital, so reinvested dollars may be destroying value, not building it.
+12.1%/yr
FY2022–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +41% over the last 3 years to FY2025 (+12.1%/yr). The count is growing: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~12.1% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2022 has been diluted ~29%.
n/m (sign flip)
FY2024→FY2025
Accruals ratio (% of NOA).Net operating assets flipped from positive to negative FY2024→FY2025 (FY2024 $+88.0M to FY2025 $-494.0M) — the standard accruals ratio divides by the average of the two, which collapses toward zero right as the sign changes, so the resulting percentage is a denominator artifact, not a real accrual measurement. Treat this as a structural balance-sheet shift to understand on its own terms rather than a clean or dirty accruals read.
76d DSO
FY2024→FY2025
Receivables vs revenue.Days sales outstanding moved from 64 to 76 days FY2024→FY2025 (receivables +30% vs revenue +20%). Receivables are creeping up relative to sales. Across FY2021–FY2025 the day count ran 27 → 35 → 48 → 64 → 76 days — the latest step continues a climb that was already under way, which is the persistence that separates a collection problem from a busy quarter.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$673.0M
Revenue Growth YoY+20.2%
Revenue CAGR (3yr)+22.8%
Net Margin-85.4%
Free Cash Flow-$472.0M
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.'s actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?
Data from SEC EDGAR public filings · metrics as of Aug 11, 2026. Forensic signals flag probability, not certainty.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Stock — Forensic Analysis, Red Flags & Rating | Stockonomy · Stockonomy
23% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 23% of revenue in FY2025 — about $1.55 per diluted share. The cost of it is not in the cash flow — no cash left the business — it is in the count, and there it has run at about 12.4% a year and is falling.