Forensic Analysis · Retail / Consumer Discretionary · as of Sep 25, 2026
Papa Johns International Inc (PZZA)
A forensic read on Papa Johns International Inc built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Grey Zone
Financial health
1.7
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
3
Forensic signals
23.6
P / E (ttm)
$663M
Market cap
2.73%
Dividend yield
-0.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (red flags, auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern, valuation). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Papa Johns International Inc earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 1.7, placing it in the Grey zone. 3 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
11.4%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 11.4% in the latest fiscal year and slipping across FY2023–FY2025 from 22.2%. After-tax operating profit was $118M in FY2023 and $59M in FY2025, with operating income at 6.9% of revenue in FY2023, 7.6% in FY2024 and 4.3% in FY2025. The capital base behind it cannot be compared across FY2023–FY2025: short-term debt is tagged in one of those two fiscal years and not the other, and an untagged line enters this calculation as zero, so any change in the base would be a change in what the filer tagged. FY2025's operating profit carried a $16M asset write-down that alone took about 2.0 points off that year's return, so about 2.0 of the 10.8-point fall across FY2023–FY2025 is that charge landing in the latest year rather than the capital earning less.
-0.3%/yr
FY2023–FY2025
Share count.Diluted share count changed -1% over the last 2 years to FY2025 (-0.3%/yr). Roughly flat — the count is neither shrinking nor growing meaningfully. Per-share value isn't being meaningfully helped or hurt by the count.
100% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $61M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 100% of free cash flow. Right at the limit of what free cash flow covers — little room before it's funded by debt or the balance sheet. That ratio has actually been EASING, not tightening further — down from ~231% of free cash flow two years back. Counting the $15M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 124%.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$2.05B
Revenue Growth YoY-0.3%
Revenue CAGR (2yr)-1.9%
Net Margin1.5%
Free Cash Flow$61.3M
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Papa Johns International Inc's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?