A forensic read on Primo Brands Corp built from its complete SEC filings — financial-health screens, earnings quality, red flags and a price-aware rating. Reproducible math, not opinion.
D · Weak — demands caution
Forensic grade
Distress
Financial health
0.0
Distress distance
Clean
Earnings quality
4
Forensic signals
1.9%
ROE
29.3%
Revenue growth
This free snapshot doesn't read filing or proxy text, so the auditor-quality and governance checks that can lower a grade were not evaluated (auditor quality, say on pay, board independence, going concern). Those checks only ever lower a grade, so the full analysis can land below the grade above but never above it — treat it as the most favourable reading, not the settled one.
Primo Brands Corp earns a D (Weak — demands caution) forensic quality grade, and its balance-sheet distress test reads 0.0, placing it in the Distress zone. 4 forensic signals were flagged in its latest SEC filings, led by return on invested capital.
What the filings flag
3.1%
FY2025
Return on invested capital.Return on invested capital is 3.1% in the latest fiscal year, close to the 2.5% of FY2024. After-tax operating profit was $234M in FY2024 and $280M in FY2025, with operating income at 7.0% of revenue in FY2024 and 6.5% in FY2025. The capital base behind it went from $9.2B in FY2024 to $9.1B in FY2025 (-1%), while the revenue it carried went from $5.2B to $6.7B. FY2024's operating profit carried a $47M restructuring charge that alone took about 0.3 points off that year's return, so about 0.3 of the 0.6-point rise across FY2024–FY2025 is that charge leaving the base year rather than the capital earning more.
+54.7%/yr
FY2024–FY2025
Share-count dilution.Diluted share count changed +55% over the last 1 year to FY2025 (+54.7%/yr). The count is growing — 242.3M shares in FY2024, 374.9M in FY2025: more stock was issued than repurchased over this window, so aggregate results grew faster than their per-share equivalents. That's ~54.7% shaved off per-share growth every year — total profit has to grow that much just to keep earnings-per-share flat, and a stake held since FY2024 has been diluted ~35%.
0.7% of rev
FY2025
Stock-based comp load.Stock-based compensation ran 0.7% of revenue and 16% of free cash flow in FY2025 — about $0.13 per diluted share. No cash left the business to pay it, which is why operating cash flow adds it back. Net of repurchases the diluted count still rose about 54.7% a year across FY2024–FY2025, above the level at which the count is a material claim on a stake, and only one year's change is on file — enough to state what a holder gave up, not enough to say whether the rate is climbing or coming down. Stock compensation is one source of that issuance; acquisition consideration, equity raises, convertibles and other employee plans also net into the count, and these figures do not separate them.
189% of FCF
FY2025
Shareholder returns.Returned $573M to shareholders (buybacks + dividends) in FY2025 — 189% of free cash flow, but 84% of operating cash flow. Returns run ahead of free cash flow because the business is also funding heavy growth capex (usually debt-financed); the payout itself is covered by operating cash — sustainable as long as that spending is genuine expansion, not upkeep. Counting the $50M of stock-based comp paid out in shares on top of that, the combined claim on free cash flow is 206%.
Key fundamentals
Latest Revenue$6.66B
Revenue Growth YoY+29.3%
Net Margin0.9%
Free Cash Flow$302.9M
Return on Equity1.9%
Debt / Equity1.72x
The forensic grade and screens above are free — no account needed. Want the AI investment read on top — the 0–100 rating, thesis, bull-vs-bear, red flags and the 12-month scenario, written from Primo Brands Corp's actual 10-K/10-Q/8-K filings?